Tuesday, October 25, 2011

Did Awami league make any mistake nominating Shamim Osman?

Shamim Osman and Mathematics – Part 4:

The question may arise ‘did AL mistake nominating a terrorist’. What if Ivy wins and AL’s candidate looses the election? Well, we have already discussed the mathematical factors on BD politics. Now, you know how a political party operates in our lovely country. It’s the high time to discover the inner momentum of AL.

My point of views says that Shamim is the ideal candidate for any political party. Because he has all sorts of qualities an ideal party-bend candidate should have including huge funds, terrorist army, influence over potential personnel and ability to torture opponents. Ivy is a very honest and sincere personnel. But what a party can do with honesty whereas they badly need funds and ability to eliminate opponents? Therefore, AL would never repent for their nomination. But what they will say after the election?

There can be 2 options for AL to face. One is if Ivy wins and other is if Shamim wins. Let’s disclose what would be the policy of AL after election.

1. If Ivy wins and Osman is defeated, then AL will have to play some diplomatic role. They will congratulate Ivy for her glorious victory. And on the other hand, they will console Osman. They will say to Osman that they moved all possible stones to make him win, but the vast people supported Ivy. In that case they can’t do anything, although they took great risk by supporting him against mass people’s preference. Thus, they can continue to get next financial funding, influence over the zone and mass volunteers for their political movements.

2. If Shamim wins and Ivy is defeated then everything will be in AL’s favor. The next day, Awami league will state that they are very pleased with the result and it will be a notice to those people who want to play at their own and against party decision. Ivy may have to undergo some great perils caused by Osmans and AL.

How Shamim Osman can win Narayanganj city mayor election 2011?

Shamim Osman and Mathematics – part 3:

Nasim Osman, brother of Shamim Osman and eldest son of the great Osman family declared that whatever happens Shamim will be the city mayor. The statement amused people while Ivy’s supporters fell into deep peril. The query is ‘can Shamim win’? Yes, he can win. And again mathematics play vital role here.

The Osmans may trigger some careful steps on the day of election.

1. They can employ their notorious goons to capture the remote areas where security will be less. The goons will stop people from going to vote centers. Instead, their supporters will ransack the booths and make sure that Shamim gets full vote from those zones. 10% total vote may cover this remote zone. If he wins and opponents claim unfair acts then he’ll claim that only 2-3% ransack cannot be counted for large scale election, its normal. Awami league will also state the same. And EC may ask for judgment but it will never see the light.

2. They will try to cast false vote list full of fake voters. But such tries already failed. So, they have to look for some other tricks.

3. They will bribe people of EC for 20% vote booth areas. They can either alter votes using fake votes or replace vote machines. I’m not against electronic voting, because it’s not possible to alter vote result using this machine. What Osmans will do is to buy extra vote machines bribing and cast fake votes. Finally they will replace these machines with original vote machines. The step will be triggered very secretly avoiding any sort of leakage. They can do it either by bribing presiding officer or pointing a gun to his head. Whatever happens they will make it. As there will be no trace, people will never know the secret. And Osman gets full 20% vote of the total votes. [** It may never happen, take it as a chance].

Shamim already got 30% vote ahead from other opponents. Therefore, he doesn’t need any showdown. Assume that rest 70% votes are counted honestly. And Ivy got 40% votes, let rest 30% votes split to Shamim and Toimur. Now Shamim gets the total of 45% [30% fake + 15% genuine] votes. He wins the race based on cumulative vote counts.

This is the simple mathematics.

Why did Awami League nominate Shamim Osman for Narayanganj city mayor election 2011?

Shamim Osman – part 2:

Awami league had to undergo a difficult situation when both Osman and dr. Ivy seek nomination for Narayanganj city mayor election. General people supported Ivy but top leaders preferred Osman. This scenario pushed League into a great trauma. However, Osman won the nomination despite Ivy. And again the mathematics played a vital role for the nomination. Let see how Osman won the mathematics game.

1. Shamim Osman confirmed huge financial funding for Awami league while Ivy was unable to fund big amount of money to League treasury. Osman has giant money sources through out the city, entire country and even foreign countries. So, he didn’t have any trouble to arrange the money needed for his nomination. Further it aided League to accommodate proper funding for the next general election. League need enormous funds for the upcoming general election and Osman confirmed significant amount of money for his nomination. Assume that Osman managed 10%-20% of total AL funds, and then AL doesn’t have to worry for money. Then why AL should go for Ivy?

2. Osman can support brutal power to AL. He and his terrorist army are capable of fighting, killing and damaging opponents’ properties. He has the ability to control whole city from all point of views. While Ivy is a fair and honest lady who will never tolerate such terrorist activities. AL definitely took this thing into consideration.

3. Osman can provide mass number of volunteers for political activities like meeting, procession and picketing. Assume that Hasina called for a public speech herself and Osman provided over lakhs volunteers to the place. She never has to worry for presence of mass people.

4. Osman is very good at torturing opponents. He used to torture his opponents and even washed away some people forever. Once he stopped Khaleda’s procession in Narayanganj and forced her to get rid of the place. Rumors say that he had records of murders and terrorist acts. AL surely supported this qualification.

5. Osman has potential influence over numerous organizations including business organizations, black-market syndicates, labor organizations, and student organizations and so on. His brothers are at very high positions in FBCCI, BKME and one of them is a MP. He can control the city and do whatever AL demands. Ivy cannot afford such things, thus it turned against her.

6. Osman ha significant connections with foreign lobbyists to operate for them, spread news about then in abroad and engage foreign government decision makers to favor his political party. He remained uncaught while an Interpol red alert was going on for years.

7. He is very obedient and perfect oilier. He knows how to oil his leaders. He frequently remembers top leaders names in front of public appearances and voice ‘joy-bangla’, ‘joy-bongbondhu’. These feature surely please Hasina and other top leaders. He already renamed several institutions and continues to name after top leaders choice. While Ivy really lack the qualities.

Taking all things into consideration, AL confirmed Osman’s nomination. And Ivy failed to win nomination despite her exclusive roles for general people and the city for past 8 years. She was very honest and did all sort of good works that resulted mass betterment for the people of the city. But still AL supported Osman due to the above mathematical factors.

And once again, mathematics wins in politics.

Monday, October 24, 2011

Bangladeshi politics and mathematics

Shamim Osman and Mathematics:

Shamim Osman is the selected candidate from Awami league for the election of Narayanganj city. Recently he expressed a fact about politics of our country and confessed that he is very good at mathematics. According to his speech “rajniti purotai mathematics, rajniti depend kore kisu mathematics er opor” and he claimed that BD politics is extremely abide by some mathematical factors. Good candidate, honest political morals go washed away due to these factors. I’ll explore the mathematical factors below.

Mathematics in BD politics:
Politics in Bangladesh truly depend on some mathematical factors. It needs huge funds as well as power in order to survive. If the political fields were honest and candidates were really patriotic then there would be no need for such trauma. Usual math features are –
1. Political parties need huge funds to operate and participate in elections. They need adequate funds to meet up their needs including but not limited to party equipments, house rents, organization costs, employee costs and other preparation costs. Downside of funds [massive amounts] are heavily used to organize procession, strikes, fighting, murders of opponents, hiring as well as bribing government officers, hiring foreign lobbyists, spread nasty news about opponents and so on. To do such things they need enormous money and election is the source of their funding. The candidates who take part in elections carry most costs and ambitious businessmen carry the rest. Therefore, a simple math applies for election candidates “give us money and get the nomination”.
2. Only funding is not enough for a political party. They need power as well as brutal control over areas. To gain such control, they need brutal people and gang leaders who can possess high voltage fighting squads and recruit ugly people who are adept in fighting, killing and damaging. If a political party can have such gang leaders then they are sure to control certain regions.
3. Political parties consistently need volunteer people to attend their processions and meetings. The more people arrive the more successful the program is. Media circulates the mass popularity of a party based on hired supporters and the parties become popular among the crowd. Gang leaders can supply such people either by hiring them by payments or forcing through abuse. Simple math “if you have splendid supply of people then you will win the nomination”.
4. The political parties need influence over numerous organizations including business organizations, black-market syndicates, labor organizations, student organizations and so on. If a candidate has enormous links in such fields then he must get extra advantages. Because parties will need him for their own influence and survival.
5. Political parties need foreign lobbyists to operate for them, spread news about then in abroad and engage foreign government decision makers to favor the political parties. If a candidate has links to efficient lobbyists then he must win privileges from party leaders.
6. Top leaders need followers who can oil them and carry out their orders blindly. Leaders use to calculate followers oiling capacity based on following features –
-How many roads and institutions are named after leaders’ favorite personnel’s? What’s the role of the candidate behind such naming procedures?
-How many times the candidate shows gratitude to the leaders while speaking in public?

These mathematical factors are very common in our country. Each political party that wants to cope with power must deal with the above issues successfully.