Tuesday, October 25, 2011

How Shamim Osman can win Narayanganj city mayor election 2011?

Shamim Osman and Mathematics – part 3:

Nasim Osman, brother of Shamim Osman and eldest son of the great Osman family declared that whatever happens Shamim will be the city mayor. The statement amused people while Ivy’s supporters fell into deep peril. The query is ‘can Shamim win’? Yes, he can win. And again mathematics play vital role here.

The Osmans may trigger some careful steps on the day of election.

1. They can employ their notorious goons to capture the remote areas where security will be less. The goons will stop people from going to vote centers. Instead, their supporters will ransack the booths and make sure that Shamim gets full vote from those zones. 10% total vote may cover this remote zone. If he wins and opponents claim unfair acts then he’ll claim that only 2-3% ransack cannot be counted for large scale election, its normal. Awami league will also state the same. And EC may ask for judgment but it will never see the light.

2. They will try to cast false vote list full of fake voters. But such tries already failed. So, they have to look for some other tricks.

3. They will bribe people of EC for 20% vote booth areas. They can either alter votes using fake votes or replace vote machines. I’m not against electronic voting, because it’s not possible to alter vote result using this machine. What Osmans will do is to buy extra vote machines bribing and cast fake votes. Finally they will replace these machines with original vote machines. The step will be triggered very secretly avoiding any sort of leakage. They can do it either by bribing presiding officer or pointing a gun to his head. Whatever happens they will make it. As there will be no trace, people will never know the secret. And Osman gets full 20% vote of the total votes. [** It may never happen, take it as a chance].

Shamim already got 30% vote ahead from other opponents. Therefore, he doesn’t need any showdown. Assume that rest 70% votes are counted honestly. And Ivy got 40% votes, let rest 30% votes split to Shamim and Toimur. Now Shamim gets the total of 45% [30% fake + 15% genuine] votes. He wins the race based on cumulative vote counts.

This is the simple mathematics.

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